Israel Must not Underestimate Hezbollah the Way that Israel Underestimated Hamas

Prior to Hamas' October 7, 2023 mass casualty terrorist attack against Israel, the Israeli military/political "concept" was that Hamas was either incapable of such an attack or afraid of the consequences of launching such an attack; in either event, Israel need not worry about Hamas doing anything more than "minor" terrorist attacks that "only" killed or wounded a few people. Any sensible person reading those words immediately understands many reasons why such a "concept" is both flawed and dangerous, including (1) a nation should not accept as a matter of course that a terrorist group will regularly launch fatal attacks on her territory, and (2) it is reckless to assume that a terrorist group that speaks of launching a massive attack is not planning to launch a massive attack given the right conditions. Israeli hubris after the Six Day War paved the way for Israeli vulnerability at the start of the Yom Kippur War, and the "concept" about Hamas displayed similar hubris.

Israel is now at great risk of falling prey to such hubris yet again. Hezbollah (which can also be spelled Hizbullah) is, like Hamas, an Iranian-funded terrorist group with global reach and global aspirations; for Iran and the terrorist groups funded by Iran, fighting Israel is just one battle in a much larger war. The Islamist quest to not only destroy Israel but to kill Jews worldwide can only be understood in the context of the concepts of Dar al-Islam versus Dar al-harb:

The barbarism at the core of radical Islam will not be cured by any concession made by Israel short of complete dissolution of the Jewish State--and even if that tragic outcome happened, radical Islam would not be placated but would instead turn its full attention toward the United States and other democratic countries that are part of the Dar al-harb--the portions of the world that radical Muslims have yet to conquer, with the emphasis on "yet": they believe that such conquest is promised to them by Allah, and they will not rest until they achieve such conquest, transforming all of the world into Dar al-Islam (territory governed in strict accordance with Islamic law, which means--among other things--no freedom of speech, no freedom of religion, no freedom of the press, no independent judiciary, and very limited rights for women and any other minority group not favored under Islamic law). 

Israel has had some success in diminishing Hezbollah's capabilities in the past year or so, but Israel should not rest on her laurels or feel safe until the job of destroying Hezbollah is complete. It is no secret that for quite some time Hezbollah has been planning a massive invasion of Israel from the north that, if successful, would dwarf the scale of what Hamas did in southern Israel. The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) has done a tremendous job of compiling in great detail a massive amount of evidence regarding Hezbollah's goals and capabilities. Unmasking The Religious Dimensions Of Hizbullah's Decades Of Planning For An October 7-Style Invasion And Massacre Of Jews is essential reading for anyone who seeks to understand the grave danger facing Israel. The opening sentences of the report are chilling to read:

Since the 2006 Israel-Hizbullah war, Hizbullah has been speaking openly, in Arabic and in explicit detail, of its plan to carry out a future massacre in Israel. Hizbullah's plan, two decades in the making, was to begin by invading the Galilee using missiles, rockets, and drones, along with advanced technology, intelligence, and surveillance, and with a tunnel network far more extensive than Hamas's. Yet Hamas's October 7 attack turned out to have preempted what Hizbullah had been planning – plans that were confirmed by documentation found by Israeli forces in their counteroffensive in southern Lebanon.

Self-proclaimed "progressives" and other "useful idiots" in the West and elsewhere falsely assert that they and their Islamist brothers in arms are anti-Zionists but not antisemites, and they falsely claim that Israel is an evil colonizer of Arab lands. The reality is that Anti-Zionism is Antisemitism, and Jews are the indigenous people of the Land of Israel. Further, there is a deep religious dimension to the war against Israel, as discussed in MEMRI's report:

In its communications, Hizbullah often refers to the seventh-century slaughter of the Jews in the Arabian Peninsula by the army of Islam's Prophet Muhammad, during the seventh-century Battle of Khaybar. In fact, Hizbullah considers all its current strikes against Israel to be part of its "Operation Khaybar" in revenge for the killing of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. An October 1 post by the Hizbullah Al-Electroni account featured a 25-second video warning, in Hebrew and English: "The Khyber [i.e. Khaybar] Gate will be uprooted twice, and the field will testify that we are the people of decisiveness."

A video released in February 2023, further highlighting Hizbullah's framing of its current battle against Israel in religious terms, showed the elite Radwan Force simulating an invasion of northern Israel. The narrator quoted the Old Testament in Hebrew: "If there is a serious injury, you are to take life for life, eye for eye, tooth for tooth, hand for hand, foot for foot, burn for burn, wound for wound, bruise for bruise. Exodus, 21:24-25." The video concluded with a verse from the Book of Jeremiah: "From the north, disaster will be poured out on all who live in the land [Israel]. Jeremiah 1:14."

This theme, and this verse from Jeremiah, also appeared in an October 2020 video on Hizbullah's media outlet Al-Manar. In it, a Hizbullah official stressed that the next phase of the "resistance" would include two "blades" – Hizbullah missiles and legions of fighters who will storm the enemy's barracks and settlements – in an operation named "The Gates Of Khaybar Will Be Smashed Again."

It is notable that Hizbullah supporters in the West – in the U.S., U.K., Australia, and elsewhere – have revived the historic Muslim call to kill Jews in chants threatening local Jewish communities: "Khaybar, Khaybar, oh Jews, the army of Muhammad will return." This occurred at a September 29 vigil for Nasrallah in Dearborn, Michigan, where it was heard; the crowd chanted "Death to Israel" for good measure.

The slogans "Free Palestine!" and "Land for Peace!" are not calls for righteous action but rather calls for disarming and weakening Israel as a prelude to destroying Israel. Hezbollah makes no secret of its goal to destroy Israel, which means that the people chanting "Free Palestine!" and "Land for Peace!" either want Israel to be destroyed or are brainwashed and have no idea what they are talking about. 

MEMRI's report describes Hezbollah's detailed plans to destroy Israel: 

Days after the September 17-18 detonation of Hizbullah operatives' pagers and other communication devices across Lebanon, came Israel's elimination of the top tier of Hizbullah's leadership, including, on September 27, Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. He was killed deep in his bunker, as he and senior Hizbullah officials were reportedly finalizing their plans that would likely have gone into action for the Jewish New Year on October 2 or for the anniversary of October 7. In its Lebanon ground offensive, which began September 30, Israel has found in the tunnels – that North Korean experts are known to have helped construct – anti-helicopter missiles, anti-tank missiles, mortar shells, ammunition, weapons, and explosives, as well as motorcycles, for Hizbullah's "Conquer the Galilee" operation.

Hizbullah believed that its invasion would bring about Israel's destruction. In interviews, and in Arab media and social media posts, Hizbullah officials, including Nasrallah, his deputies, and senior commanders, detailed the organization's goals and aims.

According to these statements, as noted, Hizbullah's plan would begin with the Galilee. In 2019, Nasrallah explained: "Part of our plan, both theoretically and in practice... It is a plan for which we train, and prepare... We have prepared this plan. It is complete. Yes, part of our plan for the next war is to enter the Galilee."

In August 2023, two months before October 7, Hizbullah operations officer "Hajj Jihad" underlined that the plan for the Galilee operation had been in the works for over 15 years. Calling it "one of the most important plans prepared by the Islamic resistance," he added that when the war starts, "we will see Israeli soldiers deserting their posts, and fleeing." He underlined that "the Islamic resistance that will wage this war" will not conduct it "like we have done it in the past" because "in the 17 years since 2006, we have been diligently preparing for this war."

It should be noted that Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000--under the disastrous leadership of Prime Minister Ehud Barak--emboldened Hezbollah, and paved the way for Hezbollah to develop into a terrorist organization with global reach. Barak did not have the necessary wisdom or courage to properly secure Israel's northern border, so now Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must finish that most important task.

Two important points must be emphasized:

1) If Hezbollah launches a mass casualty terrorist attack against Israel, no one--including Israeli leaders--can dare say that there was no way to predict or know that this could happen. The information is readily available publicly, which means that Israeli military and political leaders no doubt have access to even more information. When Netanyahu set free more than 1000 terrorists in 2011, I criticized Netanyahu and every minister who supported the deal: "These 26 Israeli Cabinet Ministers have signed death warrants for countless innocent Jewish men, women and children--and when the Hamas murderers execute those death warrants Benjamin Netanyahu and these 26 Ministers should be held accountable for setting terrorists free." I did not know when Hamas would attack, but I knew that Netanyahu and the other ministers had set the stage for such an attack to happen.

2) The Israeli government has a legal and moral responsibility to destroy Hezbollah (and Hamas) in order to protect her civilians and her sovereignty; any Israeli politician who is unwilling to fulfill that duty should immediately resign from office. Over a decade ago, I warned about a defeatist mentality in Israel that could lead to Israel's destruction: "The Rabin-Peres-Netanyahu-Barak-Sharon-Olmert plan--surrender land to bloodthirsty enemies, set child killers free so that they can kill more innocent, defenseless children, force children to cower behind concrete desks as deadly rockets pummel schoolyards and become giddy when an anti-missile missile that costs $100,000 shoots down one of a nearly endless supply of cheap rockets--falls just a bit short of Churchill's standards."

I fervently do not want to be the prophet of Israel's destruction, but Israel's destruction is possible if Israel underestimates or ignores the threats posed by Iran, a weakened but not defeated Hamas, and a weakened but not defeated Hezbollah. I warned for many years about the threat posed by Hamas, and I was proven right. I have also warned repeatedly about the threat posed by Iran in general and Hezbollah in particular, and I hope that Israel has learned from her previous grievous mistakes and will act decisively to defeat her evil enemies.